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Shaded areas indicate periods of recession as defined by NBER.
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Recession Model Values
| Month | 6 Months | 12 Months | 24 Months |
| August 2024 | 27.2% | 81.7% | 92.2% |
| July 2024 | 26.0% | 82.4% | 93.1% |
| June 2024 | 23.1% | 81.6% | 93.3% |
| May 2024 | 21.3% | 80.6% | 93.2% |
| April 2024 | 23.2% | 81.0% | 93.3% |
| March 2024 | 20.3% | 79.2% | 93.1% |
| February 2024 | 22.9% | 80.6% | 94.0% |
| January 2024 | 27.0% | 82.9% | 95.1% |
| December 2023 | 26.2% | 81.7% | 95.3% |
| November 2023 | 30.7% | 83.1% | 95.9% |
| October 2023 | 33.8% | 83.6% | 96.0% |
| September 2023 | 33.7% | 82.4% | 95.8% |
| August 2023 | 40.9% | 83.8% | 95.8% |